A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
