Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.
